The EU’s trade deal with Latin America hangs by a thread. Here’s how to save it.

A trade deal with the Mercosur bloc won’t be sealed before the European election, but that doesn’t mean it will never see the light of day.

BRUSSELS — Slow and steady wins the race — but just how slow is too slow for the EU-Mercosur trade pact?

The European Union and the South American bloc of Mercosur countries have been discussing one of the world’s largest trade deals since 1999 — yet negotiators continue to insist that success is just around the corner.

Trade officials have built entire careers out of the talks, which have seen periods of stalemate alternate with lurching advances, only for them to hit the wall again. It’s been a drawn-out and sometimes absurd drama that has invited comparisons with Samuel Beckett’s “Waiting for Godot.”

“I started my career [on Mercosur] and it will probably not be ratified until I retire,” Michael Hager, a veteran official and top aide to EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis, told an event in November.

What’s more, the current political climate could hardly be less favorable to the transatlantic trade deal. Opponents say it would dump beef from Brazil and Argentina on a continent that has been shaken by farm protests ahead of key elections — including to the European Parliament in June.

France — the bloc’s fiercest opponent of the accord — last month raised the pressure on Brussels to halt the accord. In a text message to Ursula von der Leyen, President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that he would not support signing it in its current form. It was a power move against the European Commission president, who will need the French leader’s backing to secure a second term.

“Doing it now would be kamikaze,” warned one trade diplomat, granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Diplomats on both sides agree there’s no political momentum to carry the deal over the finish line ahead of the June election. This week’s World Trade Organization gathering in Abu Dhabi will offer ministers an opportunity to take stock but is unlikely to deliver a breakthrough.

Still, the odds can turn in its favor, provided a number of stars align.

Last week, Argentina’s Foreign Minister Diana Mondino said the Mercosur countries — Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and soon Bolivia — were mulling breaking the agreement into parts. A deal that “makes everyone happy” may not be possible, she said following a meeting with her French counterpart, Stéphane Séjourné.

The deal’s sustainability provisions — and the fact that Mercosur countries could face sanctions if they don’t respect them — remain key sticking points.

Negotiations reached an original political agreement in 2019, only for new obstacles to crop up. In the latest, the Mercosur side is seeking €12.5 billion in sweeteners to help offset the cost of environmental conditions that the EU wants tacked onto the deal.

The deal would create a free trade area spanning nearly 800 million people. While Mercosur countries would remove duties on 91 percent of imports from the EU and fully liberalize imports of passenger cars, Mercosur countries would benefit from better conditions on exports ranging from beef to ethanol.

Does non really mean non?

The EU side is weighing the option of breaking the deal into two parts, a political and a trade agreement — as the bloc recently did with its agreement with Chile — to facilitate its approval once agreement is reached with the Mercosur countries.

Whereas a “mixed agreement” would require ratification in the European, national and some regional parliaments, the Commission could decide to carve out a separate trade deal. This would only need to be approved by the Council of the EU and the European Parliament, enabling faster ratification.